這5個(gè)亞洲國家將占55％的世界生物質(zhì)增長量
2018-11-30
預(yù)計(jì)中國將在未來十年內(nèi)領(lǐng)先并增加12GW。
China is expected to lead the pack and add 12GW in the next decade.
亞洲是否能夠應(yīng)對主導(dǎo)生物質(zhì)行業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)？ BMI Research在一份報(bào)告中稱，中國、印度、日本、泰國和馬來西亞等5個(gè)國家是全球最大的生物質(zhì)容量增長市場。
Is Asia up to the challenge of dominating the biomass sector? BMI Research has put five countries on its cards for the top global biomass capacity additions markets, namely China, India, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia, it said in a report.
預(yù)計(jì)這些市場將占2017年至2027年全球產(chǎn)能增加量的55％，并在此期間使亞洲在全球總裝機(jī)容量中的份額從33％增加到39％。
Together, these markets are projected to represent 55% of global capacity additions between 2017 and 2027 and grow Asia's share of total installed biomass capacity globally from 33% to 39% over this timeframe.
預(yù)計(jì)中國將在未來十年內(nèi)占總生物質(zhì)增加量的近30％，總計(jì)增加12GW。 印度將成為增長速度為6GW的第二大擴(kuò)張市場。
China is expected to make up close to 30% of total biomass capacity additions over the coming decade, adding 12GW in total. India will be the second fastest expanding market with its 6GW of capacity additions.
“這兩個(gè)國家擁有大量的生物質(zhì)殘余物，農(nóng)業(yè)、林業(yè)和廢物產(chǎn)生的原料可以用于發(fā)電，”BMI Research說。
“These two countries have substantial access to biomass residue, with agribusiness, forestry and waste generating feedstock that can be be incinerated for power generation,” BMI Research said.
中國甚至有望超過巴西，并在2019年成為全球最大的生物質(zhì)市場。“中國利用廣泛基礎(chǔ)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的殘余物，”BMI Research表示。
China is even projected to overtake Brazil and become the largest biomass market globally by 2019. “The country leverages residue from a broad base of activities,” the firm said.
其中包括從收獲糧食留下的殘余物，玉米、水稻、棉花和小麥的秸稈，秸稈在中國中部和東北部地區(qū)特別有潛力。“然而，林業(yè)衍生的生物質(zhì)原料將在中國南部和中部地區(qū)具有更大的潛力，該區(qū)域的生物質(zhì)行業(yè)潛力更為突出，”它補(bǔ)充道。
These include residues left from the food harvest, with straw and stalks from maize, rice, cotton and wheat being of particular potential in central and north-eastern parts of the country. “Whereas, forestry derived biomass feedstock will have greater potential in southern and central parts of China where such industry is more prominent,” it added.
中國還為生物質(zhì)行業(yè)制定了雄心勃勃的增長目標(biāo)，目標(biāo)是到2020年安裝15GW的容量，到2030年增加到30GW。“我們預(yù)計(jì)中國將超越這些目標(biāo)，到2019年達(dá)到其近期目標(biāo)，總?cè)萘吭?/span> 2020年達(dá)到17GW，”BMI Research表示。
China has also adopted ambitious growth targets for the sector, aiming to have 15GW of capacity installed by 2020, rising to 30GW by 2030. “We expect China to outperform these targets, and reach its near-term target by 2019, with total capacity in 2020 amounting to 17GW,” BMI Research said.
這與中國政府的第13個(gè)五年計(jì)劃有關(guān)，該計(jì)劃預(yù)計(jì)到2020年生物質(zhì)能產(chǎn)出相當(dāng)于5800萬噸煤的熱量和電力。中國國家能源局（NEA）還概述了多項(xiàng)舉措，如直接與農(nóng)業(yè)廢棄物的熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)替代煤。
This ties into the government's 13th five-year plan, where the biomass is envisioned to generate heat and electricity that is equivalent to 58 million tonnes of coal by 2020. The National Energy Bureau of China (NEA) also outlined multiple initiatives such as directly replacing coal with agricultural waste in combined heat & electricity generation were outlined.
“這與我們的觀點(diǎn)一致，到2027年，該行業(yè)的規(guī)模將增加到25.5GW，”BMI Research表示。
“This ties into our view that by 2027, the size of the sector will have increased to 25.5GW,” BMI Research said.
由于生物質(zhì)項(xiàng)目“大量積壓”并獲得有吸引力的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)，該BMI Research對日本也持樂觀態(tài)度。“截至2017年3月，這個(gè)積壓總量為12.4GW，這是因?yàn)橄蜷_發(fā)商提供了有吸引力的激勵(lì)措施，以支持政府減少日本對進(jìn)口煤炭和天然氣的嚴(yán)重依賴的目標(biāo)，”它表示。
The firm also has an upbeat view for Japan due to the “substantial backlog” of biomass projects with access to attractive feed-in-tariffs. “This backlog, which totalled 12.4GW as of March 2017, is the result of the attractive incentives offered to developers to support the government's aim to reduce Japan's heavy reliance on imported coal and natural gas,” it said.
雖然BMI Research對增長持樂觀態(tài)度，并預(yù)測2017年至2020年期間有1.5GW的生物質(zhì)能力將上線，但預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)能增加仍將落后于日本龐大的批準(zhǔn)積壓，并且長期內(nèi)將大幅放緩。
Whilst BMI Research is upbeat on growth and forecasts 1.5GW of biomass capacity to come online between 2017 and 2020, capacity additions are still expected to underperform Japan's sizeable approval backlog and to slow substantially over the longer term, however.
“這是由于政府為遏制項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度而作出的規(guī)定，所有FiT申請者必須在2017年4月之前建立電網(wǎng)連接，確保大部分項(xiàng)目積壓將無法有進(jìn)展”。 “大型項(xiàng)目的FiT也已降低。”
“This is due to provisions made by the government to curb the amount of projects progressing, with all FiT applicants being required to have grid connections as of April 2017, ensuring that a large portion of the project backlog will fail to progress,” the firm said. “The FiT for larger projects has also been reduced.”
“這兩項(xiàng)舉措將緩解FiT積壓的進(jìn)一步積累，并促使我們認(rèn)為該行業(yè)的增長將在2020年后放緩，”它補(bǔ)充道。
“Both moves will mitigate a further build-up in the FiT backlog and feeds into our view that growth in the sector will slow post-2020,” it added.
根據(jù)該報(bào)告，未來十年全球生物質(zhì)總裝機(jī)容量可能增長超過三分之一，到2027年將達(dá)到近160GW。“這意味著2017年至2027年間生物質(zhì)能力增長平均為3.2％，相對而言，分別低于我們預(yù)測風(fēng)電和太陽能行業(yè)的增長率7％和11.7％，“它表示。
According to the report, the world’s total installed biomass capacity could expand by more than a third over the coming decade, reaching nearly 160GW by 2027. “This means that biomass capacity growth will average 3.2% between 2017 and 2027, a rate that is relatively slower than the equivalent 7% and 11.7% growth rates we forecast for the wind and solar sectors respectively,” it said.
預(yù)計(jì)生物質(zhì)能源在安裝的非水電可再生能源總量中的份額將從2017年的11.3％下降到2027年的7.5％。
Biomass power's share of total installed non-hydropower renewables is forecast to decline from the 11.3% registered over 2017 to 7.5% by 2027.
